Bihar Assembly Election 2025

Team Khabarmitra

Published on: 10 August, 2025

Election Timeline

The current assembly term expires on November 22, 2025, making the election mandatory before this date. The Election Commission is expected to announce the schedule in September 2025, with polls likely in October-November 2025.

Current Political Landscape

Ruling Alliance Structure

National Democratic Alliance (NDA) currently governs Bihar under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, following his dramatic return to the BJP-led coalition in January 2024. The alliance comprises:

Janata Dal (United) – JD(U): Led by Nitish Kumar, targeting 102-103 seats
Bharatiya Janata Party – BJP: Led by Dilip Jaiswal, contesting 101-102 seats
Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) – LJP(RV): Led by Chirag Paswan, expecting 25-28 seats
Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) – HAM(S): Led by Jitan Manjhi
Rashtriya Lok Morcha – RLM: Led by Upendra Kushwaha

Opposition Alliance

Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) represents the primary opposition, featuring:

Rashtriya Janata Dal – RJD: Led by Tejashwi Yadav as CM candidate
Indian National Congress: Led by Rahul Gandhi, with reluctance to endorse Tejashwi
Left Front: CPI(ML)L, CPI, CPI(M)
Vikassheel Insaan Party – VIP: Led by Mukesh Sahani

New Political Force

Jan Suraaj Party: Founded by Prashant Kishor on October 2, 2024, representing a third alternative challenging traditional politics.

Caste Composition Impact

Bihar’s 2023 caste survey revealed crucial demographic realities shaping electoral strategies:

Bihar caste demographics showing EBC and OBC dominance at 63.1% combined

Key Findings:

Extremely Backward Classes (EBC): 36.0% – JD(U)’s core support base
Other Backward Classes (OBC): 27.1% – RJD’s traditional stronghold
Scheduled Castes: 19.6% – Contested by multiple parties
Upper Castes: 15.5% – BJP’s primary base
Scheduled Tribes: 1.7% – Limited electoral impact

Electoral Mathematics

The combined EBC+OBC population of 63.1% represents the decisive electoral bloc, explaining why caste census and reservation policies dominate campaign narratives.

Key Election Issues and Voter Priorities

Key voter priorities for Bihar 2025 election with employment and youth issues topping concerns

Primary Concerns

Employment and Migration Crisis: Bihar’s chronic unemployment forces millions to migrate to other states for work. This represents the top voter priority at 9.5/10 importance.

Youth Opportunities: With over 60% population under 35, youth-focused policies including education, skill development, and entrepreneurship rank as the second-highest priority.

Caste Reservation Debate: Following the caste survey, reservation policies remain contentious, especially after the Patna High Court struck down Bihar’s 65% reservation.

Major Campaign Strategies and Manifestos

NDA Campaign Approach

Development and Stability Narrative:

Nitish Kumar’s Experience: Emphasizing his 20+ years of governance
“Double Engine” Government: Leveraging BJP’s central power and state alliance
Infrastructure Projects: ₹1,000+ crore announcements during recent rallies
Women Empowerment: Continuing Mahila schemes and safety initiatives

Mahagathbandhan Strategy

Change and Social Justice Platform:

Tejashwi Yadav as CM Face: RJD’s clear positioning despite Congress reluctance
Employment Guarantee: Promise of massive job creation
Caste Justice: Restoration of 65% reservation and social equity
Anti-Incumbency: 20-year anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar

Jan Suraaj’s Disruption Model

Citizen-Led Governance:

Education Investment: ₹5 lakh crore over 10 years funded by liquor excise revenue
Economic Reforms: Lifting liquor prohibition for development funding
Decentralization: Right to recall and citizen participation
Youth Focus: 4% interest loans to women entrepreneurs

Seat Projections and Electoral Mathematics

Projected seat distribution showing NDA’s narrow advantage over Mahagathbandhan in 243-seat assembly

Projected Distribution

NDA Alliance: ~241 seats (Potential majority)

JD(U): 102 seats
BJP: 101 seats
LJP(RV): 27 seats
Others: 11 seats

Mahagathbandhan: ~143 seats

RJD: 85 seats
Congress: 35 seats
Left parties: 15 seats
Others: 8 seats

Independents and Others: ~15 seats

Jan Suraaj Party: 10-20 seats (potential kingmaker)

Critical Challenges and Controversies

Voter Roll Revision Crisis

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has created major controversy:

Opposition Allegations:

4.5 crore voters potentially disenfranchised
Systematic targeting of Muslim and Dalit voters
Threat of election boycott by Mahagathbandhan

Election Commission Defense:

Routine exercise after 22 years
Foreign infiltration concerns addressed
All eligible voters will be included

Leadership Uncertainties

Nitish Kumar’s Future: At 74 years old, speculation about his final electoral battle and potential succession planning.

BJP’s CM Strategy: Uncertainty about Nitish’s continuation as CM face, with potential Maharashtra-style leadership change.

Regional and Constituency Analysis

Geographic Strongholds

NDA Dominance:

Northern Bihar: EBC-dominated constituencies
Urban Centers: Middle-class and upper-caste areas
Eastern Border: Development-focused regions

Mahagathbandhan Strength:

Central Bihar: Yadav-Muslim concentrated areas
Southern Districts: Backward caste populations
Rural Constituencies: Agricultural communities

Swing Constituencies

Competitive Seats: Approximately 80-90 constituencies with victory margins under 10,000 votes in 2020, making them crucial battlegrounds.

Economic and Development Factors

State Financial Position

Revenue Challenges:

Bihar’s poor credit-deposit ratio of 35% vs national average 75%
Migration remittances as major income source
Limited industrial base affecting employment generation

Infrastructure Progress:

Road connectivity improvements under NDA rule
Education infrastructure expansion
Healthcare facility upgrades

Electoral Predictions and Scenarios

Most Likely Outcome

NDA Narrow Victory: 125-135 seats based on:

Incumbency advantage with development narrative
Nitish Kumar’s continued appeal among EBCs
BJP’s organizational strength
Opposition fragmentation

Alternative Scenarios

Mahagathbandhan Revival: 120-130 seats if:

Anti-incumbency intensifies significantly
Successful caste mobilization by RJD
Congress strengthens grassroots presence
Youth unemployment becomes decisive issue

Hung Assembly: No clear majority leading to:

Coalition negotiations
Jan Suraaj as kingmaker
Post-poll realignments

Key Players to Watch

Established Leaders

Nitish Kumar (JD-U): The central figure whose political survival depends on this election.

Tejashwi Yadav (RJD): 35-year-old leader positioning himself as the change candidate.

Chirag Paswan (LJP-RV): Rising Dalit leader with significant influence in 25+ constituencies.

Emerging Forces

Prashant Kishor (Jan Suraaj): The political strategist turned politician with 1 crore claimed membership.

Manoj Bharti (Jan Suraaj President): Former diplomat leading organizational structure.

Election Timeline and Process

Key Dates

September 2025: Election Commission schedule announcement
October-November 2025: Polling phases (likely 2-3 phases)
November 22, 2025: Constitutional deadline for new assembly

Logistical Considerations

Voter Registration: 7.9 crore registered voters across 243 constituencies.

Security Arrangements: Multi-phase polling due to law and order concerns in certain regions.

Strategic Recommendations

For Political Parties

NDA Strategy:

Emphasize governance record and development achievements
Address youth unemployment with concrete job creation plans
Maintain caste coalition balance between upper castes and EBCs

Mahagathbandhan Approach:

Resolve CM candidate issue to avoid voter confusion
Strengthen ground organization in all 243 constituencies
Focus on bread-and-butter issues beyond caste politics

Jan Suraaj Positioning:

Target urban educated voters disillusioned with traditional politics
Build credible candidate network across constituencies
Leverage Prashant Kishor’s strategic expertise effectively

Conclusion and Outlook

The Bihar Assembly Election 2025 represents a watershed moment in the state’s political evolution. With Nitish Kumar potentially fighting his last election, Tejashwi Yadav seeking to establish RJD supremacy, and Prashant Kishor attempting political disruption, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Key Determinants:

Voter roll revision controversy resolution
Youth unemployment response effectiveness
Caste mobilization success by different parties
Anti-incumbency vs stability narrative victory

The election outcome will not only determine Bihar’s governance for the next five years but also influence national politics, given the state’s 40 Lok Sabha seats and strategic importance in federal coalition building.

Final Prediction: NDA is likely to retain power with a narrow majority, but the emergence of Jan Suraaj as a significant force and potential post-poll realignments make this election highly unpredictable and crucial for Bihar’s political future.